Brazil's wheat imports are forecast to grow in 2026 as its own crop area declines due to higher costs linked to the Iran war and uncertainty over the impact of an expected El Nino weather event, industry experts said.
While imports will grow, quality issues in top supplier Argentina will push Brazil to source more wheat from countries such as Russia and the United States, likely at higher costs, the experts said.
"Mills expect to import between 1 million and 1.5 million metric tons of wheat from other origins (outside the South American trade bloc Mercosur)," Rubens Barbosa, CEO of industry group Abitrigo, said in an interview.
Brazil imported 6.87 million tons of wheat last year, and 2026 wheat imports could hit 7 million tons, Barbosa said, while consultancy Safras & Mercado forecasts more than 8 million tons in the 2026/27 crop cycle.
Brazil last saw wheat imports above 7 million tons in 2013.
BRAZILIAN CROP EXPECTED TO FALL AS COSTS WEIGH
Argentina's wheat quality has been declining for several years and part of its most recent crop is not suitable for bread flour, Barbosa said, adding that Brazil will instead import more from the U.S. and Russia.
Despite some quality declines, Argentina's record harvest of more than 28 million tons of wheat last year means it can still meet Brazilian demand, said Gustavo Idigoras, head of Argentina's grain exporters and processors chamber CIARA-CEC.
"Part of ... exportable supply had low protein content and was sold as feed to Southeast Asia and China. The rest meets bread wheat quality standards and is being shipped to traditional markets such as Brazil," he said.
In Brazil, concerns are growing as planting occurs amid higher fertilizer and fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict, said Safras & Mercado analyst Elcio Bento.
Farmers are also expected to be more cautious with investments given a forecast El Nino weather pattern, which typically brings heavier rains to southern Brazil - where most of the wheat is grown - hurting wheat quality, Bento said.
Brazil's output could fall by almost 2 million tons to just over 6 million tons, he added.
"In all these years, I've never seen such an uncertain season," Bento said.
(Reuters)
