Benevolent weather and use of quality farm inputs such as seeds, fertilizers and chemicals will help Brazilian soybean growers reap an enormous crop in the 2024/25 season, according to agribusiness consultancies Celeres and StoneX on Monday.
The country's output is likely to reach 170.8 million tons, almost 1 million tons more than in a previous forecast, Celeres said, citing an expected increase in Brazil's soy area. Exports are seen totaling 107 million tons in the season, it predicted in a new report.
StoneX said Brazil will reap 166.2 million tons this season. It also rose the export forecast to 103 million tons from 102 million tons in November.
Despite a bullish view, dryness in Southern Brazil still poses some risks, StoneX said.
Such a large crop, if confirmed, will continue to put pressure on global prices, Celeres said, adding that last season's production was a much lower 154.5 million tons. StoneX put Brazil's production last year at 149.8 million tons. Brazil, the world's largest soy producer and exporter, ships soybeans mainly to China for domestic processing.
Other consultancies are also bullish on the new crop, which farmers are planting now. Agroconsult, which organizes an annual crop tour to inspect fields, pegged the new crop at a record 172.2 million tons last week, 10 million tons above a previous record production in 2022/23.
Celeres said the country's soy outlook changed dramatically from the initial weeks of the season, when a drought disrupted sowing and put planting behind pace in early October. As the weather improved throughout November, sowing gathered pace and in that month it was 13% above the rhythm for the same period the previous year, Celeres said.
A timely soy harvest also benefits second corn, which is planted after the soy is harvested in the same fields and represents the bulk of Brazil's corn production in a given year.
(Reporting by Ana Mano and Roberto Samora; Editing by Mark Porter and Jonathan Oatis)
