Russia's seaborne diesel and gasoil exports are expected to fall in August to the lowest since September 2023 at 2.7 million-2.8 million metric tons due to refinery maintenance and domestic fuel demand, LSEG and market sources data show.
Russia's refinery runs in August were steady or slightly higher than in July, but diesel production is seen declining due to the overhaul of secondary refining units at several refineries, according to traders' data and Reuters calculations.
Russian seaborne diesel loadings to Brazil could fall this month to the lowest since February 2023 at around 450,000 tons, shipping data showed.
Decreasing Russian supplies would probably be partially replaced by volumes from other regions, sources said.
According to LSEG data, the tanker Marcilio Dias loaded at the Indian port of Sikka with 140,000 tons of low-sulphur diesel and is heading towards Brazil, expected to arrive in September.
Diesel and gasoil loadings from Russian ports to Turkey could fall in August to about 1.0 million-1.1 million tons. In the previous month diesel exports to Turkey were 1.58 million tons.
SOCAR's STAR oil refinery in Turkey is due to enter a two-month maintenance period starting early in September.
Turkey and Brazil have become the main importers of Russian diesel since the European Union's full embargo on fuel imports from Russia went into effect in February 2023.
In September seasonal maintenance will start at Russian refineries, and offline primary oil refining capacity is expected to almost double from August to 3.377 million tons.
Due to strong domestic fuel demand some refineries could postpone their overhauls from September to the following month, traders said.
(Reuters - Reporting by Moscow; Editing by Jan Harvey)
