More Data Shows Chinese Slowdown

 

The Chinese economy grew by 7% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.

 

The data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.

 

The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.

 

What does this means to shipping?

 

Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, said, “The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.

 

“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”

 

“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”