Russian wheat export prices held firm last week, supported by a strong rouble and a continued reluctance by farmers to sell, although analysts expect a drop in export shipments in June.
The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery in June to early July was $245 a metric ton at the end of last week, the same as the week before, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.
The price of new-crop wheat which is due to hit the market in July remained at $242 per ton, he said.
IKAR estimates Russia's May wheat exports at between 3.3 million tons and 3.4 million tons. Wheat exports in June are expected to be no higher than 2.5 million tons.
Sovecon consultancy put prices last week for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein at between $243 and $245 a ton compared to between $242 and $244 the week before. In the first half of last week, Russian FOB hit $246-247 a ton, a season high, before easing by the weekend, analysts noted.
"Global FOB values were generally lower... pressured by collapsing futures and lukewarm importer demand. Russian FOB was an important exception. Prices rose again on limited domestic supply and the elevated ruble exchange rate", head of Sovecon Andrey Sizov noted.
Sovecon last week revised its estimate for May wheat exports upwards by 0.2 million tons compared with the previous week week, to 3.0 million tons.
Last week, the agency raised its estimate for the 2026 wheat harvest to 90.3 million tons. Today, it announced a downward revision to its export forecast by 0.6 million tons for the current season, citing slowing demand from importers.
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture expects wheat exports from Russia this season to reach around 50 million tons and anticipates a “decent harvest” in 2026, based primarily on the condition of winter crops, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said at the end of last week.
The rail operator Rusagrotrans estimated May wheat exports at 3.0 million tons. Some 2.5 million tons were shipped between May 1 and May 25.
Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:
Product: | Most recent data: | Change from a week earlier |
- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon) | 14,000 rbls/t | +100 rbls/t |
- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon) | 39,350 rbls/t | +350 rbls/t |
- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon) | 95,000 rbls/t | +325 rbls/t |
- Export sunflower oil (IKAR) | $1,280/t | +$7/t |
- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon) | 34,000 rbls/t | +1,100 rbls/t |
- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR) | $823.88/t | -$2.51/t |
(Reuters)
