U.S. diesel exports to Europe hit an all‑time high in January after the continent strengthened its ban on imports of Russian-derived fuel, and as discounted Russian diesel displaced U.S. fuel in Brazil, data showed and analysts said.
The developments show how Western sanctions, aimed at punishing Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, are reshaping markets, allowing U.S. producers to capture premium markets in Europe while forcing Russia to seek customers much farther from home.
Notably, the EU's ban is cutting its imports from India, one of the top refiners of Russian crude.
"The European Union is facing a supply shortfall," said Matias Togni, analyst for NextBarrel, as
U.S. refiners helped fill the gap with diesel exports to the EU in January hitting an all-time high of 336,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to Kpler data going back to 2017. Data from shipping analyst Vortexa puts U.S. diesel exports to the EU even higher in January, at 410,000 bpd.
Diesel supplies from India, which had been a top supplier to Europe as Brussels began pushing members to wean themselves off Russian supply in the wake of the Ukraine war, dropped sharply in January to a one-year low of 26,000 bpd, according to Kpler data.
Russian crude made up 30% of India's seaborne crude imports in 2025.
HIGHER RUSSIAN DIESEL EXPORTS TO BRAZIL
A jump in Russian diesel exports to Brazil has helped boost U.S. shipments to the EU. Brazil, typically one of the top markets for U.S. fuel, is also one of Moscow's biggest remaining buyers.
Increased Russian diesel flows into Brazil are freeing up U.S. Gulf Coast barrels for export to Europe, said Energy Aspects analyst Natalia Losada.
Sparta Commodities analyst Neil Crosby said an easing of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries over the past quarter might also have helped to boost Russian exports.
Russia's seaborne diesel and gasoil exports rose 19% in January from the previous month to around 963,000 bpd, data from market sources and LSEG showed this month, with Turkey and Brazil the largest buyers.
Russian diesel exports to Brazil averaged around 205,000 bpd in December and January, the highest since May 2025, according to Kpler data. U.S. exports to Brazil fell to 51,000 bpd in January, the lowest since September.
"We are once again observing a larger discount for Russian diesel compared to other references, and this ends up encouraging greater demand for diesel supplied by Russia," said Bruno Cordeiro, analyst at StoneX in Brazil.
The start of the soybean harvest in Brazil increases the use of heavy vehicles running on diesel to transport it to export terminals, he added.
The Brazilian Mines and Energy Ministry did not reply to a request for comment on imports from Russia.
TREND MAY NOT LAST
U.S. diesel exports to Europe could ease from the January high in the short term as some U.S. Gulf Coast refineries undertake maintenance, and high freight costs hurt the arbitrage economics of selling to Europe, said Losada of Energy Aspects.
Indian exports of diesel to Europe could rebound should New Delhi replace its Russian crude supply with other grades, as the U.S. has been urging, for instance from Venezuela.
Reuters reported this month that Indian refiners have been avoiding Russian oil purchases for April and could stay away from such trades for longer.
"Indian diesel flows to the European Union will resume eventually, with refiners there now trying to get clean of Russian crude oil," NextBarrel's Togni said.
(Reuters)