"During the first nine months of 2026, clean product volumes loaded on LR2 tankers fell 28% year-on-year following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the lower volumes, tonne-mile demand increased 2% year-on-year,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
LR2 product tankers loaded on average 2.1 million barrels per day (mbpd) of clean products during the first three quarters of 2026, 0.8 mbpd less than in the same period of 2025. In 2025, more than 40% of clean product volumes carried by LR2s were loaded in the Persian Gulf, equivalent to 1.2 mbpd. Following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, this fell to 0.4 mbpd in 2026, accounting for just 18% of all clean product volumes loaded on LR2s.
However, the decline in clean products has been more than offset by increased crude oil and heavy product volumes carried by LR2s. During the first nine months of 2026, these averaged 5.1 mbpd, up 1.8 mbpd year-on-year.
“As a result, LR2s loaded 1.0 mbpd more during the first nine months of 2026 than in the same period of 2025, an increase of 15%,” says Rasmussen.
Despite the increase in volumes, total tonne-mile demand rose by only 2% year-on-year in the same period. The average sailing distance fell 12% as volumes lost from the Persian Gulf were on longer-than-average trades, while new volumes were generally carried over shorter distances.
Higher volumes from the Mediterranean and the Americas accounted for 80% of the increase in crude oil and heavy product volumes, although LR2s gained volumes in almost all loading regions.
In the US and Canada, the increase in crude oil and heavy product volumes loaded on LR2s exceeded the overall increase in exports from both countries. LR2s also captured nearly 30% of the increase in Venezuela’s crude oil and heavy product exports.
The largest gains came on trades from the US Gulf to North Europe, Venezuela to the US, the west coast of Canada to North Asia and North Africa to Italy. Including existing volumes, the average sailing distance for crude oil and heavy products carried by LR2s was 33% shorter than for clean products.
“The increase in crude oil and heavy product volumes carried by LR2s since the second quarter of 2025 has coincided with an 18% expansion in LR2 fleet capacity. A large order book and limited recycling potential are expected to drive further fleet growth in the coming years. By contrast, a smaller order book and greater recycling potential will continue to limit growth in the Aframax crude tanker fleet. We therefore expect LR2s’ dependence on crude oil and heavy product exports to continue,” says Rasmussen.