New insights from DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 indicate that the number of alternative-fuel-capable vessels in operation is set to almost double by 2028.
By 2030, the alternative-fuelled fleet will be able to burn up to 50 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) of low-greenhouse gas (GHG) fuels annually, double the estimated volume needed to meet the IMO 2030 emissions target.
Yet today, actual consumption of low-GHG fuels remains at just 1 Mtoe.
The widening gap between capacity and use highlights both the scale of industry commitment and the urgent need for fuel producers and infrastructure developers to accelerate supply to match the fleet’s readiness, says DNV.
“The industry has made real technical progress in recent years,” said Eirik Ovrum, lead author of the report. “But these solutions are still operating in silos. To deliver impact, they need to be integrated into fleet strategies, supported by infrastructure, and recognized in compliance frameworks. That’s where the next phase of work must focus.”
The report highlights the different advances being made based on fuel type. There are 1,539 vessels in operation that can run on bio-LNG or e-LNG, compared to three vessels capable of operating on blue ammonia or e-ammonia.
Global annual production of biodiesel amounts to about 20 million tonnes oil equivalent (Mtoe), while production of bio-methanol/e-methanol is only about 1 Mtoe.
Similarly, on the infrastructure side, there are 106 bunkering facilities catering to bio-LNG and e-LNG, while there is only one for ammonia.
There are several solutions that could help bridge the gap between fleet readiness and fuel availability, including leveraging existing fuel infrastructure for low-GHG fuels like biodiesel and bio-LNG, combined with the adoption of flexible chains of custody models.
The cost of establishing bunkering and distribution infrastructure for low-GHG fuels varies between fuel types, and the total costs will depend on the rules adopted for using different GHG-intensity versions of the same fuel, directly impacting the reusability of infrastructure.
The adoption of flexible chain of custody models, which can trace and verify the sustainability of low-GHG fuels in the fuel supply chain, is a solution. For example, in the case of LNG and bio-LNG, if a mass balance chain of custody model is applied to interconnected infrastructure, the fossil LNG terminals and natural gas pipelines can be used instead of building separate infrastructure for bio-LNG/bio-methane.
This has the added benefit of reducing energy consumption, emissions, and costs associated with further infrastructure expenditure, thereby further incentivizing the production of low-GHG fuels.
Allowing full flexibility, for example through the book-and-claim chain of custody model, would lead to even greater energy savings. Purchasing bio-LNG in this way would result in the bunkered volume having a proof of sustainability document, enabling reduced GHG intensity towards FuelEU Maritime and EU ETS.
Shipowners need evidence-based insight to choose effective and economical emissions-compliance strategies for ships and fleets. DNV presents case studies including an 18,000dwt chemical tanker to demonstrate the consequences of the new IMO NZF regulations expected to be confirmed in October. The modelling explores key mechanisms such as buying Tier 1 and Tier 2 remedial units, using low-GFI fuels, and selling surplus units.