“Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments are estimated to have plunged 49% combined y/y between January and August 2025. Both countries had a smaller export surplus following weaker grain harvests in the second half of 2024. Overall, the combined production from both countries was 10% below pre-war levels,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Russian and Ukrainian grain harvests fell by 12% and 6% respectively last year due to poor weather conditions. In response to the reduced output, Russia slashed its wheat export quota by 63% between February and June 2025.
Ukrainian seaborne shipments have prevailed despite war-related disruptions and Russian strikes on the port of Odesa in March 2025. However, in June, the EU’s tariff-free trade agreement for Ukrainian agricultural exports expired and the revised deal now excludes wheat and maize.
In 2024, Russia and Ukraine were the fourth and fifth largest grain exporters globally. Russia led in wheat exports while Ukraine ranked fourth in maize and fifth in wheat. The war in Ukraine has led to a drop in Ukrainian wheat and maize yields and during the last harvest, the yields fell to a new low of 33% below pre-war levels. Conversely, Russia managed to boost wheat yields which rose 9%.
“The weakening of shipments out of Russia and Ukraine contributed to an estimated 6% decline in global grain shipments between January and August 2025. An increase in shipments out of the US, Canada, Australia, Argentina and Romania have only partly compensated for weaker cargoes out of Russia and Ukraine. Overall, this has negatively affected demand for panamax, supramax and handysize ships,” says Gouveia.
So far this year, 70% of grain shipments out of Russia and Ukraine have headed to ports in the Mediterranean, the Black Sea and the Middle East. That is 13 percentage points higher than the year prior, as shipments to East Africa and to South, Southeast and East Asia have dropped 62% y/y.
“During the next twelve months, we expect a partial recovery in Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments, driven by an expected 19% surge in Ukrainian maize yields, according to the USDA. Wheat shipments may remain stable as an expected 2% increase in Russian yields is offset by an 8% decline in Ukraine. In total, their grain production is projected to be 6% below pre-war levels and the second weakest year since the start of the war,” says Gouveia.