Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst:
“The recent tariff ruling by the US Supreme Court will have knock-on impacts for ocean container shipping, but this will be nuanced and unlikely to cause a huge increase in frontloading demand, even though tariffs on some Chinese manufactured goods are lower today than a week ago.
“The court ruling and political fallout actually increase uncertainty for many shippers. The TPM industry conference taking place in Long Beach next week is traditionally when long term freight contracts are negotiated, but this uncertainty could see US shippers delay signing new agreements to allow time to assess where they will be sourcing from in 2026 and in what volumes.
“At the same time as the tariff ruling, we see classic developments in freight rates and capacity on the major fronthaul trades, which will also play into long term contract negotiations in the US.
“There is a massive increase in blanked sailings this week and next week on fronthaul trades from Far East to US and Europe as carriers take a more aggressive approach to capacity management. This has seen average spot rates stabilize, with less than half a percentage point movement across all fronthaul trades in the past week.
“Looking ahead, the nuanced impact of the US Supreme Court tariff ruling could be a contributing factor to an expected increase in average spot rates at the beginning of March, reversing the downward trend in 2026 so far. There is unlikely to be a cargo rush, but talk alone can influence market sentiment and unnerve shippers. Coupled with massive blanked sailings, this will cause upward pressure on freight rates and a welcome boost for carriers.”
Data highlights
Market average spot rates – February 26, 2026
Far East to US West Coast: USD 1 883 per FEU (40ft container)
Far East to US East Coast: USD 2 659 per FEU
Far East to North Europe: USD 2 224 per FEU
Far East to Mediterranean: USD 3 334 per FEU
North Europe to US East Coast: USD 1 487 per FEU
Far East to North Europe: +4.6% from a week ago
Far East to Mediterranean: +2.0% from a week ago
North Europe to US East Coast: -8.5% from a week ago