Russian wheat export prices climbed last week amid a stronger rouble and sustained demand from importers, while analysts raised their export estimates for October.
The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery at the end of November or the start of December was at $231 a metric ton at the end of last week, up $2 from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.
"To a large extent, this (price increase) is due to the slowdown in the signing of export contracts amid the strengthening of the rouble," Rylko said.
Last week, the rouble reached its highest levels since July against the dollar and the euro due to slowing imports and rising foreign currency sales by exporting companies.
The Sovecon consultancy estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content at between $230 and $231 a ton FOB compared to $230-232 a ton the previous week.
Analysts see an increase in shipments, partly due to improved weather conditions in ports. A number of international tenders last week, as well as the purchase of French wheat by Egypt's Future of Egypt, confirm fairly high demand from importers.
"We believe importer demand remains elevated versus a few months ago", Sovecon said in a weekly note.
Sovecon increased its estimate of October wheat exports by 0.1 million tons to 5.1 million tons. IKAR also raised its estimate for October exports to 5.0 million tons from more than 4.5 million tons last week.
"If there are no major disruptions in the last ten days of the month, it will probably reach 5.0 million tons or more," Rylko said.
Last week, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture reaffirmed its forecast for the 2025 grain harvest at 135 million tons. Grain harvesting has been completed at 91% of the planted area, and amounted to approximately 132 million tons.
Minister of Agriculture Oksana Lut said on October 15 that grain exports for the current season were expected to reach 50 million tons.
Harvesting in Siberia and sowing of winter crops across the country are behind schedule, while a state of emergency has been declared in several districts of the Omsk and Novosibirsk regions due to snowfall.
However, according to Sovecon analysts, the weather is improving.
Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:
Product: | Most recent data: | Change from a week earlier |
- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon) | 14,125 rbls/t | -325 rbls/t |
- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon) | 36,050 rbls/t | -450 rbls/t |
- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon) | 95,100 rbls/t | 0 rbls/t |
- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon) | 33,600 rbls/t | -600 rbls/t |
- Export sunflower oil (IKAR) | $1,215/t | +$18 |
- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR) | $619.63/t | +$17.74 |
(Reuters)