"In 2025, China’s total import of crude oil rose nearly 5% -- 4.9% to 11.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) from 11.1 mbpd in 2024 according to data released by the General Administration of Customs (GACC) in China. Seaborne imports increased an estimated 4.0% year-on-year. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), China’s stockpiles rose slightly less than 1 mbpd, indicating that the underlying import demand fell nearly 0.5 mbpd,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
The crude tanker market is very dependent on China’s crude oil imports as they drive slightly more than one fifth of crude tanker volumes and about 30% of tonne miles. Chinese volumes are particularly important for trades from the Persian Gulf, Brazil and Russia.
Year-on-year, changes in the sourcing of Chinese imports have shortened sailing distances by almost 1% and limited tonne miles growth to 3.2%.
“A shift away from US volumes loading mainly in US Gulf ports towards Canadian crude loading in the Pacific Northwest drove much of the reduction in the average sailing distance for Chinese crude tanker imports. China’s import from the US declined 61% year-on-year in 2025 while imports from Canada climbed 313%,” says Rasmussen.
The decrease in volumes from the US started in February as China increased tariffs on US crude oil and volumes have not recovered since. Canadian volumes rose as the expansion of the Transmountain Pipeline increased volumes flowing into Vancouver. Talks between China and Canada and ambitions to increase Canada’s export to China by 50% by 2030 could further increase crude oil volumes.
Along with exports from Brazil, Canadian volumes were the key drivers of Chinse import growth while exports from the US and Russia recorded the largest losses. Imports from Russia were 11% of Chinese seaborn supply and so far, further US sanctions do not appear to have impacted volumes.
Despite the support from stockpiling, seaborne volumes to China grew less than 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 as first quarter imports fell. In fact, fourth quarter volumes accounted for 56% of total import growth and nearly 80% of seaborne import growth. The fourth quarter increase coincided with a larger oil market surplus and the average price for Brent crude falling below USD 65/barrel.
“In 2026, both the EIA and the International Energy Agency (IEA) expect Chinese oil consumption to increase only 0.2 mbpd (1.2% year-on-year). Seaborne volumes may grow slower as the IEA estimates that Chinese refinery runs will increase 0.1 mbpd while the EIA expects support from stockpiling to remain nearly 1 mbpd,” says Rasmusen.