Russian wheat export prices rose last week, tracking global prices, against a backdrop of a sharp decline in supply due to restrictions in the Azov-Black Sea basin, analysts said.
"World FOB prices strengthened sharply amid extremely limited supply from Russia and Ukraine and rising global futures ... We believe the market is finally starting to seriously price in the Black Sea supply shock", said Andrey Sizov, head of the SovEcon consultancy.
Wheat exports from Russia may remain at their lowest level since 2010 for the second month running, he said.
According to IKAR, export prices for wheat with a 12.5% protein content in the Baltic region – where the bulk of shipments are now being redirected as the southern markets remain virtually closed – were at $263 per metric ton FOB Vysotsk by the end of last week. A week earlier, the agency had valued a ton of wheat with this delivery at $248.
The bulk of shipments via ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin were halted throughout last week due to attacks on vessels and damage to terminals.
The nominal price per ton of wheat with a 12.5% protein content, delivered on a free on board (FOB) basis from Novorossiysk, is currently estimated at $210, according to Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR.
He estimated that Russia had been able to export around 1.9 million tons of wheat in August.
Rusagrotrans raised its estimate for August wheat exports to 2.0 million tons from 1.8 million, while SovEcon raised its estimate to 2.0 million tons from 1.9 million a week earlier.
SovEcon has provided its first estimate for wheat exports in September: 1.8–2.3 million tons, compared with 4.8 million tons a year earlier.
"That would mark the second consecutive month at the lowest level since 2010, with exports down by more than 50% from the previous year", Sizov said.
As of the end of last week, just over 100 million tons of grain from the new harvest had already been harvested, which is 12.5% more than a year earlier. The sowing campaign for the 2027 harvest is gathering pace, the Russian Agriculture Ministry reported.
More Russian data released by SovEcon and IKAR:
Product
Most recent prices
Change from a week earlier
- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (SovEcon)
8,600 rbls/t
-2,500 rbls/t
- Sunflower seeds (SovEcon)
24,350 rbls/t
-2,250 rbls/t
- Domestic sunflower oil (SovEcon)
99,000 rbls/t
-850 rbls/t
- Domestic soybeans (SovEcon)
27,200 rbls/t
-1,800 rbls/t
- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$581.73/t
-$48.07/t
(Reuters)