Brazil's ethanol import window, used mainly by US fuel exporters, is likely to reopen in January for the Suape port in Pernambuco state, brokerage and analyst StoneX said in a report.
The brokerage expects the first quarter of 2027 to resemble the same period in 2026, when anhydrous ethanol was imported through Suape.
Imports surged in Brazil early in the year, pushing the trade balance negative from January to March, as US ethanol landed in the Northeast cheaper than domestic anhydrous despite an 18% import tariff.
Brazil's ethanol trade balance turned positive from April, and the September surplus was the highest in the series StoneX reviewed.
Brazilian ethanol exports, however, fell 17% year to date to 1.03 billion liters, driven by a 34.1% drop in industrial ethanol demand, while fuel ethanol shipments rose 31.7%.
Brazil's import window opens when the cost of importing US ethanol — including freight, exchange rate, the 18% tariff and port costs — falls below the price of domestic anhydrous in Northeast Brazil.
StoneX's forecast assumes stable freight, rising domestic ethanol prices and cheaper US ethanol, which would narrow the price difference during the Brazilian sugarcane off-season from December to March.
(Reuters)