"So far this year, ship transits via the Panama Canal have increased 8% y/y to a daily average of 38, driven by the tanker sector. Transits have been especially high during the past five weeks, rising 16% y/y, as US energy exports to the Pacific jumped,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
The Iran War and the subsequent reduction in Strait of Hormuz transits have disrupted exports from the Persian Gulf, tightening the global energy supply and boosting prices for energy commodities. This has contributed to a rise in US energy exports to Asia and the west coast of the Americas, increasing demand for Panama Canal transit slots.
“The daily maximum capacity of the Panama Canal is around 36 to 40 transits, meaning it is currently operating close to maximum capacity. Some transits are booked in advance, and some are offered as last-minute slots which are auctioned daily. The recent spike in demand has inflated auction prices and caused a 50% y/y increase in waiting times, now sitting at a 47-hour average,” says Gouveia.
A wide variety of ships transit the Panama Canal, but the container, LPG, oil tanker and bulk sectors combined account for 77% of transits. Sectors such as containers typically operate on fixed schedules which allow them to book the transit slots ahead of other ships. Other sectors, such as bulk and oil tankers typically bid for transit slots closer to the transit date.
When the cost and time of transiting the Panama Canal increase, operators may consider sailing via the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn. These alternatives have an increased voyage length and therefore lead to higher bunker costs. However, they can also lead to savings in canal transit fees and provide extra flexibility.
Looking ahead, demand for Panama Canal transits could stay high for as long as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist and US energy exports stay strong. In the short term, congestion and waiting times could remain high and increase further in the medium term. The Panama Canal Authority has scheduled maintenance on the east lane of its panamax locks between 9 and 17 of June, offering ten less slots than usual during the period.
“The weather phenomenon El Niño is expected to emerge between May and July, posing another risk to Panama Canal transits. Under El Niño, Panama typically experiences reduced rainfall which can compromise Gatun Lake water levels, the canal’s main water reservoir. When El Niño last emerged in 2023, it compromised regular transit conditions for about a year. At its worst point, between December 2023 and January 2024, only 22 daily ship transits were allowed at a maximum draught of 13.4 meters (44 ft) which is 12% below normal levels,” says Gouveia.