Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday reduced its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in 2025/26 by 300,000 metric tons to 7.20 million as competition from Argentine wheat continued to weigh.
The third consecutive reduction in its non-EU export forecast was only partly compensated by a small rise in expected shipments within the bloc to 7.56 million tons from 7.51 million previously, it said in a monthly supply and demand outlook for the EU's largest wheat producer.
"Opportunities are beginning to diminish with supply coming from competitors, particularly Argentina," FranceAgriMer grain analyst Habasse Diagouraga told reporters.
As a result of lower export forecasts, the office lifted its outlook for soft wheat stocks at the end of 2025/26 to 3.05 million tons from 2.80 million, now nearly 23% above last season.
On a brighter note, Diagouraga said port lineups had shown a cargo of 5,000 tons of wheat and 13,000 tons of barley heading to Algeria, which would mark the first shipment of wheat to the North African country since July 2024 and the first barley shipment in three seasons.
"Exports to Algeria are important as it is a traditional client. We hope that it can last," Benoit Pietrement, head of FranceAgriMer's grain committee, said.
Exports to Algeria, traditionally France's biggest wheat buyer, have stalled due to diplomatic tensions between Paris and Algiers.
Traders said they were not aware of the wheat loading for Algeria and were surprised given the diplomatic context.
FranceAgriMer, however, raised its forecast for barley exports outside the 27-member bloc, to 3.7 million tons from 3.35 million seen in January, and now 58% above last season.
French barley exports have been supported by 900,000 tons shipped to China early in the season, and shipments to Saudi Arabia now amounting to between 830,000 and 900,000 tons, Diagouraga said.
The higher export forecast led FranceAgriMer to cut its projected barley ending stocks for 2025/26 to 1.37 million versus 1.55 million forecast last month and 17.7% above last season.
The 2025/26 maize ending stocks are expected at 2.19 million tons, up from 2.16 million forecast last month and now unchanged from last season.
(Reuters)