Black Sea Wheat Exports Could Rise 12% in 16/17

Leading wheat producers in the Black Sea region - Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan - are likely to increase their exports by around 12 percent in 2016/17 due to a bigger harvest than last year, analyst UkrAgroConsult said on Tuesday.

It forecast exports from the three countries would total 54.1 million tonnes in the marketing year ending next June.

Their wheat production rose to 114.3 million tonnes this year from 101.7 million tonnes a year earlier after the planted area increased by about 800,000 hectares to 46.2 million hectares, UkrAgroConsult said in a report.

"In the current season the Black Sea region has become the key player in the world wheat market by achieving record high productivity during the 2016 harvesting campaign," UkrAgroConsult said.

"No doubt, in the 2016/17 marketing year the region will confirm its leadership as the world's largest wheat supplier."

Ukraine boosted its wheat exports by 13 percent in the first quarter of 2016/17 while Kazakhstan's shipments for the past five marketing years could be a record high, the consultancy said.

It expects a 15-20 percent increase in Kazakh grain export capacity and 20-25 percent growth in wheat flour exports this season.

Russia sales, however, are currently behind target, the consultancy said.

"Wheat exports are 4.5 percent higher (than a season earlier), this is not enough to reach the stated goal of (exports) 30 million tonnes," it said.

"Some market participants have already reduced their export estimates by 1-3 million tonnes to 28-29 million tonnes."

UkrAgroConsult said that an unexpected fall in the quality of Russian wheat, problems with Egypt about ergot content and the postponing of a decision on scrapping wheat export duty were the main downward factors.

open stocks (tonnes): 13,396,000 // 12,564,000

sown area (ha): 46,240,000 // 45,471,000

harvest (tonnes): 114,300,000 // 101,700,000

export (tonnes): 54,100,000 // 48,170,000

ending stocks (tonnes): 20,188,000 // 13,396,000