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Saturday, December 7, 2019

Oil Demand News

AdobeStock / © Rawf8

Oil surges as China Pushes Tariff Rollbacks

Oil prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday on hopes for a U.S.-China trade agreement and optimism that Washington could roll back some tariffs on Chinese imports.Brent crude futures rose 74 cents, or 1.2%, to $62.87 a barrel by 12:56 p.m. EST (1756 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 68 cents, or 1.2%, to $57.22 a barrel.China is pushing U.S. President Donald Trump to remove more tariffs imposed in September as part of a so-called Phase 1 deal, which would…

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Iranian Tanker Hit by Missiles, Oil Rises

Oil prices jumped more than 2% on Friday, October 11, 2019, after Iranian media said a state-owned oil tanker had been struck by missiles in the Red Sea near Saudi Arabia, raising the prospect of supply disruptions weeks after attacks on Saudi oil plants.The Suezmax crude tanker Sabiti was ablaze and suffered heavy damage after being hit by two missiles, Iranian media reported.Both oil benchmarks recorded their biggest daily rise since Sept. 16, the first trading day after the…

The latest oil production data from China has eased concerns over oil prices which increased slightly during the past month. 

(Photo © Adobe Stock / chagpg)

Oil Prices: Chinese Data Eases Concerns

Oil prices rose today (Monday, September 30) after China’s factories unexpectedly increased production over the past month, easing concerns about demand amid the ongoing trade war with the U.S. Brent crude futures rose 9 cents to $62 a barrel by 0300 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 13 cents to $56.04 a barrel.The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for September increase for the second month in a row as Chinese factories increased production and new orders rose ahead of market expectations…

Image: DNV GL

Natural Gas to be 29% of World’s Energy Supply by 2050

The global oil demand will peak in the mid-2020s and gas demand will keep rising to 2033, says DNV GL.Gas demand will then plateau, and the fuel will remain dominant until the end of the forecast period in 2050, when it will account for over 29% of the world’s energy supply, it said.Significant investment will be required to ensure production meets demand, including realising the potential from stranded gas reserves and for reserve replacement. DNV GL forecasts global upstream gas capital expenditure to reach USD 737 billion (bn) in 2025…

File Image: AdobeStock / © Carabay

McQuilling Mid-Year Tanker Market Outlook

McQuilling Services Announces the Release of the 2019 Mid-Year Tanker Market Outlook Update.The Mid-Year Tanker Market Outlook Update provides an outlook on the global tanker market in the context of global economic growth and oil fundamentals influencing tanker demand and vessel supply. The outlook includes a view on future asset values, time charter rates, market freight rates and TCE revenues for 24 major tanker trades and four triangulated routes across eight vessel segments for the second half of 2019 through the remaining four years of the forecast period 2019-2023.

Adobestock / © rawf8

Trade Fears Drag Stocks, Yuan at 10-Year Low

NEW YORK, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Stock markets around the world fell hard on Monday on fears that China's willingness to let the yuan slide in response to the latest U.S. tariff threat could further aggravate trade-related tensions between the world's two largest economies.China on Monday let the yuan tumble beyond the 7-per-dollar level for the first time in more than a decade, in a sign Beijing might be willing to tolerate further currency weakness after U.S. President Donald Trump vowed last week to impose 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports from Sept.

AdobeStock / © Kasto

Oil slumps 7% as More Tariffs Loom

Oil prices plummeted more than 7% on Thursday, with the U.S. benchmark posting its worst day in more than four years, after President Donald Trump said he would impose additional tariffs Chinese imports starting Sept. 1.The drop in Brent crude was the steepest in more than three years, undoing a fragile oil rally built on steady drawdowns in U.S. inventories even as global demand looked shaky due to the U.S.-China trade dispute.Trump's announcement of an additional 10% levy on…

Chart: BIMCO

BIMCO: VLCC Freight Rates from Gulf to China Doubles

VLCC spot freight rates between the Arabian Gulf and China rose 101% in the days between June 13, 2019 and June 20, 2019, in the aftermath of attacks on two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Spot freight rates for a VLCC, carrying 2 million barrels of oil, between the Arabian Gulf and China reached USD 25,994 per day on June 20, their highest level since March and significantly above the May average of USD 9,979 per day.Despite this increase, freight rates on this route only narrowly exceeds the daily break-even costs of a VLCC…

File Image of the port of Hong Kong / CREDIT Adobestock © Marco 2811

Fitch Ratings: Demand Risks Weigh on Global Shipping Sector Outlook

The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers.Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk…

Image: Tsakos Energy Navigation

TEN: Cautious Optimism on Shipping Market

The provider of seaborne crude oil and petroleum product transportation services Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited (TEN) said that though the tanker market showed upward trajectory, management will keep a close eye on developments and refine its employment approach.The Greece-based tanker company said in a stock exchange annoucement that "As we approach the end of 2018, the signs that the worst is behind are becoming increasingly evident. Global oil demand is continuing its upward…

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How Refiners Plan to Grapple With Fuel Oil Output After 2020

High-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), essentially the leftovers of an oil refiner's output, will still flow from refineries around the world even after new rules start up in 2020 curtailing its use in the global shipping fleet, a Reuters survey showed.Sixty percent of the 33 refineries contacted by Reuters in a global survey will still produce HSFO in 2020 although the supply will tighten as 70 percent of these refiners plan to reduce their output.Starting that year, ships will have to use marine fuel…

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Tanker Market Grappling with More Uncertainty

Tanker shipping: Added uncertainty is not helpful to the struggling tankersDemandJust when you thought it could not get any worse for the tanker shipping industry, the U.S. is reimposing sanctions on Iran coming into force after a six months wind-down period ending on November 4, 2018. The immediate effects are less tangible but sure to add more uncertainty to the whole shipping industry that has plenty of uncertainty to deal with already.At the same time, freight rates for both crude oil tankers and oil product tankers are mostly in loss making territory.

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Breaking Down IMO’s 0.5% Bunker Sulfur Cap

Breaking down the challenges of the 2020 sulfur cap can be confusing. Matti Bargfried provides a primer. What has happened so far? The IMO this October voted in its 70th session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee to globally cap the maximum amount of sulfur allowed to 0.5 percent. HFO will be further allowed (there is no mandate to disallow usage) provided it meets the set standards. Alternative measurements like scrubbers are also accepted to reduce the ship emissions.

d'Amico Bullish on Product Tankers

d'Amico International Shipping believes that the supply-demand balance in the product tanker freight market is improving. The key drivers that should affect the product tanker freight markets are (i) global oil supply (ii) the crude oil price and refinery margins (iii) demand for refined products and (iv) the product tankers fleet growth rate. The International Energy Agency, in its 2017 Oil Market Report (OMR), published in March 2017, forecasted annual global demand growth to average 1.2 million b/d…

Photo: BW LPG Limited

BW LPG Registers 10% Growth in VLGC Fleet

Less domestic petrochemical consumption of LPG would be positive for VLGC shipping as it would result in a greater surplus of LPG available for export. However, it is still unclear whether this dedicated-feedstock ethylene (five new ethylene plants, two expansions) and propylene production capacity expansion will displace a portion of the olefin production currently coming from flexible-feedstock ethylene crackers (positive for VLGC freight), or whether it will supplement it and the excess olefin production will then be exported (negative for VLGC freight).

Graph: Gibson Shipbrokers

VL-exit?

Earlier this week spot returns in the VLCC market touched their lowest level since October 2014, with TCE earnings for Middle East/Japan (TD3) falling close to $20,000/day, says Gibson Weekly Tanker Market Report. The current weakness has been essentially driven by the build-up of available tonnage, leaving charterers with healthy numbers to choose from. However, is this a temporary blip or are there more fundamental forces at play? Perhaps, the best way to understand the current…

Oil Product Tanker Earnings

BIMCO - Oil Product Tankers Earnings Decline as stockbuilding Slows Down

BIMCO’s expectations remain as the oil product tanker fleet continues to grow with earnings at the lowest since Q3 in 2014. But there is still money to be made in the second half of 2016. The oil product tanker market has reached a net fleet growth of 4.3m DWT so far in 2016. That is well in line with BIMCO’s full estimate of 8.5m DWT for the full year 2016. The main drivers of the total growth continue to be the MRs and LR2s. With a net fleet growth of 5.8 % in 2015, the oil…

Graph: Poten and Partners

Slippery Orders in Ship Building

The situation of the shipyards in the world and in particular the struggles of the Korean shipbuilding industry has received a fair amount of attention in the shipping press, as well as in more general news outlets. Poten and Partners discusses about the outlook for vessel deliveries in the second half in its publiation - Tanker Opinions. In the tanker market, which, until recently, was one of the few profitable shipping segments, attention has also shifting back to the supply side of the equation.

Glencore Sees Record Oil Trading Volumes as Margins Shrink

Glencore looks set to cement its position as the world's second-largest oil trader as it tries to offset low volatility and tight margins with record volumes this year, its global head of oil, Alex Beard, told Reuters. The London-listed commodities trader and miner will shift around 6 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and refined product this year, up 25 percent from last year. The figure represents around 6 percent of global supply and only rival Vitol trades more oil, at some 7 million bpd.

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India's Oil Imports Hit Record High in September

India imported a record 4.83 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in September as several refiners resumed operations after extensive maintenance to meet rising local fuel demand. The world's third-biggest oil importer shipped in 10 percent more oil last month than a year earlier and about 19 percent more than in the previous month, ship-tracking data from industry sources and Thomson Reuters Analytics showed. "There was heavy maintenance at some refineries in July-August. All those refineries have come online…

Photo: Euronav

Euronav: VLCC Order Book Expands

The challenging freight market during the third quarter came despite some encouraging signs with active scrapping of vessels returning (nine VLCCs scrapped plus one removed from fleet for FPSO project; six Suezmax scrapped during the third quarter) incentivized by a steel price at near three-year highs, says Euronav NV. This was supported by continued upgrades to crude oil demand with the IEA raising its forecast for 2017 from 1.2 mbpd to 1.6 mbpd over the course of the third quarter and U.S. crude exports again making further progress to record on average 933k bpd for the third quarter.

File photo: Armando Cruz Jr.

Tanker Market Shows Mixed Trend -McQuilling

McQuilling Services’ 2016 Mid-Year Tanker Market Outlook Update examines the tanker shipping market from January, and forecasts the balance of 2016 through 2020 based on market conditions in the first half of the year. Findings from the report can be found below. Global oil demand in 2016 is expected to rise by 1.38 million b/d to over 95 million b/d, representing a 1.46 percent increase year-on-year, before decelerating in the balance of our five year outlook. Looking ahead, we expect global supply of crude oil to reach 78 million b/d in 2016 and over 80 million b/d by the year 2021.

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Frontline CEO: Scrapping to Lift 2018 Tanker Rates

Oil tanker firm Frontline expects shipping firms to scrap more old vessels in the time ahead, which may lead to a recovery in rates for the remaining global fleet in the second half of 2018, its chief executive told Reuters on Monday. Spot rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs), with a capacity of to transport 260,000 tonnes of oil, have recently dropped to a loss-making $13,000-14,000 per day, far below Frontline's cash break even rate of $21,600. Spot rates for the smaller Suezmax vessels are also below Frontline's cash break even level…

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India's Oil Imports Reach Record High in January

India imported a record 4.93 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) in January to feed its expanded refining capacity and meet rising demand, ship tracking data obtained from sources and data compiled by Thomson Reuters Oil Research & Forecasts showed. The world's third-biggest oil importer shipped in 13.6 percent more oil in January than a year earlier and about 12.5 percent more than the previous month, the data showed. Imports in January were high as state-run refiners, which operate two-third of India's nearly 5 million bpd capacity…

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S.Korea Fuel Oil Imports Soar

South Korea's move to shut coal-fired generators to control air pollution at the same time as nuclear reactors are going into scheduled maintenance is resulting in surging fuel oil imports, as utilities burn the dirty feedstock to meet power demand. South Korea's trade ministry said in February it would suspend five coal-fired power plants, with a combined capacity of 2.32 gigawatts (GW), from March to June, part of a broad campaign to reduce pollution. That plan may backfire, at least in the short-term.

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2020 Low-sulfur Rule to Trigger Huge Disruptions -IEA

The shipping industry and oil refineries are not doing enough to prepare for new rules cutting the amount of sulfur that vessels can emit from 2020, according to the head of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) oil industry and market division.The new rules drastically cut the amount of sulfur that the world's ships can emit, from 3.5 percent currently to just 0.5 percent. Ships that install "scrubbers" that remove sulfur as the fuel is burned can continue to use higher sulfur fuels…