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Sunday, September 20, 2020

Maritime Strategies International News

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Uncertainty Weighs on Tanker Markets -MSI

Increasing port delays in Asia, U.S. and Europe will provide only limited support and MSI predicts rates will fall further in Q3.After three months of OPEC+ production cuts, tanker markets are feeling the pressure with both crude and products sector earnings moving lower in July according to Maritime Strategies International.Back in May MSI forecast quarterly average Aframax one year time charter rates to fall from $32,400/day to $21,600/day at a time when spot markets were seeing record levels.

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Bottlenecks and Inefficiencies Are Key Upside Risks for Dry Bulk Market -MSI

Port days and diverted voyages are having an unusually strong impact on market balances and will play a key role in the short term outlook.Summer may be drawing to close in the northern hemisphere but for dry bulk shipowners, the positive tone could continue into early autumn as port delays and diversions provide continued upside, says Maritime Strategies International.July was another positive month for the dry bulk sector, with average monthly spot rates rising to their highest level this year for all benchmark vessels…

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Containership Markets Plot Uncertain Course to Recovery -MSI

New HORIZON Monthly report shows freight rates remain high, blanked sailings have hit charter markets and coming quarters continue to hold riskContainership markets are exhibiting contradictory signals as the global economy continues its tentative emergence from lockdown. In the first of its new HORIZON Monthly reports, Maritime Strategies International (MSI) analyzes the forces at play in freight and charter markets as well as the impact of global policy on demand.On nearly all trade lanes…

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COVID-19 Cuts a Swath Through Containership Charter Earnings -MSI

While the implications of COVID-19 for containership demand and freight rates are directionally clear, the time charter market often marches to its own drum.The latest Container Shipping Forecaster from Maritime Strategies International analyzes the impact of the pandemic on time charter markets in the light of reduced demand and falling fright rates.Containership time charter rates have broadly retreated in recent weeks, and since the start of 2020 the majority of benchmarks have seen earnings retreat by 10-15% - hardly a historic correction.

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MSI Launches Digital 'MSI Horizon' Platform

Maritime Strategies International has unveiled MSI Horizon, a new digital platform which enables clients to access the consultancy’s proprietary macro and shipping market models and asset valuations data via a single interface.The creation of an integrated data platform means MSI clients can quickly and easily run market simulations and see the results across multiple shipping sectors.This includes creating their own forward outlook on valuations and earnings scenarios by adjusting inputs such as GDP growth and vessel supply and demand.

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ABS Plots Course to Low Carbon Shipping

ABS has launched its Low Carbon Shipping Outlook to help the maritime sector evaluate potential pathways to low carbon shipping.The Outlook defines ship technologies, operational efficiencies and alternative fuels and energy sources needed to reach 2030 and 2050 targets, noting specifically:2030 targets can be met through operational measures and efficiencies driven by connectivity and data analytics and energy efficient designs.Fuels are in focus to get to 2050. The conceptual…

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Scrubber-fitted Dry Bulk Vessels to Command Premiums -MSI

A two-tier market will reward early adopters with higher timecharter rates and asset values as cost of low sulphur fuel increases dramatically, says research and consultancy firm Maritime Strategies International (MSI).According to MSI, scrubber-fitted dry bulk vessels could be earning a significant premium over those burning more expensive low sulphur fuel and higher asset values will reward those owners that fitted the technology early.In an article ‘Scrubbing Up: the impact…

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Dry Bulk: Less Pain, Not Much Gain

The dry bulk market’s strong end to 2016 is unlikely to last long into 2017, according to the latest research from Maritime Strategies International. In its latest quarterly dry bulk market report*, MSI predicts a depressed year for rates in 2017, a year marked by multiple risks to recovery. Stronger freight markets in Q4 2016 had been broadly expected by MSI, albeit for slightly different reasons. While iron ore trade undershot its expectations, coal trade overshot them with geographical imbalances playing a key role.

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For Liner Operators, the Worst May Be Over

At the behest of their backers, tonnage providers are being forced to exchange hope for action, while for operators the worst may just be over, says Maritime Strategies International (MSI). The latest phase of mass consolidation continues to see the container shipping industry sailing in uncharted waters and has emphasized the extent to which liner companies are having to restructure their business models in order to survive. In its latest quarterly Container Market Report, MSI concludes that the actions taken by liner companies…

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Shipping Recovery Faces Supply/Demand Challenges

The shipping industry faces a stormy road to recovery, with uneven supply/demand trends set to test the nerve of investors and operators, according to independent research and consultancy firm Maritime Strategies International (MSI). Addressing the Hansa Forum in Hamburg, Germany this week, MSI Senior Analyst James Frew warned that the industry will continue to face multiple challenges to a sustained recovery despite positive demand fundamentals. “The commodity shipping sectors…

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Charter Owners, Operators Confront Container Market’s ‘Great Divergence’

The latest Container Shipping Forecaster from Maritime Strategies International highlights the contrasting fortunes of liner operators and tonnage providers. The entire container shipping industry remains under significant pressure. Whilst freight rates have improved marginally from the extreme lows seen over the middle of the year, most liner companies are now at best breaking even, with weaker lines still probably in a loss-making position. The situation is even worse for charter owners, with vessel earnings marooned below operating costs for most mid-sized vessel classes.

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Q4 Bounce Forecast for Dry Bulk Market

The Q4 bounce – a seasonal staple of the dry bulk markets – looks likely for Capesize and Panamax segments, but the effects may be limited. Independent research and consultancy firm Maritime Strategies International (MSI) is forecasting a fourth quarter bounce in dry bulk market earnings, driven by improving iron ore, coal and grain trades. In its latest Dry Bulk Freight Forecaster, MSI sees positive signs beyond the traditional summer lull in chartering activity for both the Capesize and Panamax sectors.

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Brexit to Hinder Container Shipping Recovery -MSI

The U.K. Brexit vote will have far-reaching effects on the container shipping market, despite the country’s relatively minor role in global trades, according to industry research and consultancy firm Maritime Strategies International (MSI). MSI’s analysis of the impact of the U.K. Brexit vote on the container shipping sector finds that amid the short term political and economic uncertainty, the downside risks for container shipping have been extended beyond 2016 and into 2017 as the risk of recession grows. In and of itself, the impact of reduced U.K.

Capesize ‘Uptick’ Not Strong Enough for an Upsurge

April 19, 2016. The latest Dry Bulk Freight Forecaster from Maritime Strategies International* analyses the recent uptick in the Capesize market and considers the positive trends and mitigating factors. MSI finds the indicators are relatively positive in the short-term for iron ore trade. On the supply-side, iron ore prices of $50-60/tonne are in profitable territory for the big iron ore miners and will no doubt support the ramp up of new export capacity in Australia and Brazil.

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Mixed Prospects for Container Shipping

The latest Container Shipping Forecaster from Maritime Strategies International (MSI) makes a more optimistic forecast on the demand side. Though its supply-side predictions are broadly aligned with those of Drewry and Alphaliner, MSI's  trade growth estimates for 2016 are more than double those of the others. Much of this positivity rests on an interpretation of the dynamics of trade volumes on the Asia-Europe route, with MSI ascribing much of the weakness in 2015 to short-term currency and inventory effects and 2016 seeing a reversion to fundamentals-driven growth.

Figure 1 (Image: MSI)

Dry Bulk Market in Historically Bad State -MSI

Dry bulk sector revisits 1980s lows and faces uncertain longer term outlook; with the market near bottom, attention is turning toward the length of the downturn, the effect on asset values and the impact of broader demand side changes. In terms of annual average fleet employment rates, the dry bulk market has now dropped to levels last seen over 20 years ago in 1992, according to the latest quarterly dry bulk market forecast from Maritime Strategies International (MSI). However, current time charter rates of $5,700/day for Panamax vessels are much worse now than the $9,500/day rates seen then.

photo courtesy MSI

VLCC Earnings Set for Strong Growth

London, December 15, 2015. The latest Tanker Freight Forecaster from Maritime Strategies International predicts further upside volatility in the crude tanker market in 2016 as a result of OPEC’s decision to effectively maintain oil output levels. Average VLCC spot earnings for the Baltic Exchange’s ME-Japan voyage (TD3) have exceeded $100,000/day in the first half of December. Over the six-month horizon of the latest report, upside potential remains high, with a combination of…

Q4 2019  - Short Sea Shipping Ports