"During the last two weeks of July, dirty tanker loadings from Russian Black Sea and Sea of Azov ports fell 62% compared to the previous four weeks’ average. Exports averaged 0.98 million barrels per day (mbpd) compared to 2.59 mbpd in the previous four weeks,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
On July 6, 2026, Ukraine launched Operation MoLoChKa, a large-scale maritime drone campaign initially focused on Russia-linked shipping in the Sea of Azov. According to Ukraine, the operation aims to disrupt oil, fuel and cargo logistics used to circumvent sanctions and supply occupied Crimea. Initially, the campaign reportedly targeted smaller ships operating from Sea of Azov ports and was expanded into the Black Sea on 15 July.
By 28 July, Ukraine claimed that more than 200 ships had been attacked.
The operation has disrupted Sea of Azov shipments and reportedly contributed to Russia suspending navigation through the Kerch Strait and the Don-Azov Canal, significantly hindering export flows. The attacks in the Black Sea may also make some shipowners more cautious about engaging in the trade, potentially creating further challenges for exports.
“Kazakh dirty tanker exports have been hurt as badly as Russian exports as oil loadings from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal in Novorossiysk have fallen 62% during the past two weeks compared to the previous four weeks,” says Rasmussen.
In fact, several of Ukraine’s Black Sea attacks have appeared concentrated around the CPC Novorossiysk terminal even though nearly 75% of year-to-date exports from the terminal have been destined to EU countries.
India has year-to-date been the single largest destination country, receiving 25% of the exports from Russian ports in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Volumes to India have decreased 66% during the past two weeks and have thereby been affected more than the average.
Aframax and Suezmax tankers have so far this year split the volumes from the Russian Black Sea and Sea of Azov ports approximately 20/80. The two segments of ships have seen similar reductions in volumes during the past two weeks.
“Dirty tanker exports from Russian ports in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov have year-to-date made up 5% of global dirty tanker loadings. Should volumes continue at the reduced levels seen over the past two weeks, global dirty tanker volumes could decline 3% in a market already challenged by a 5.6% fall in volumes so far this year compared with the same period last year,” says Rasmussen.
