The possibility of regular, deep draft Arctic traffic and energy exploration is no longer an academic question. The new question is not “if,” but “when.” Will we be ready?
- The Big Thaw: Not-so-chilling new data…
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National climate Data Center, the first nine months of 2010 tied the mark for the warmest on record (1998). NOAA’s latest report looks at combined, global land and ocean surface temperatures. As it turns out, both metrics ranked second in their respective categories, including data stretching all the way back to 1880. Separately, the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reported that sea-ice coverage in the Arctic fell to its third lowest amount on record.
The proverbial ice (for critics of global warming theories) is quickly getting very thin in the face of mounting evidence. Former U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Thad Allen said it best, not too long ago, when he asserted, “We have to start looking at environmental response, search and rescue, and patrolling in an area that didn’t have water. We’re going to be sending some units up there to test their capabilities at high latitudes next summer because there’s water there and we have responsibilities.” That much can’t be argued with.
- Flag States: Ramping up to meet the challenge
The Arctic policy National Security Presidential Directive / Homeland Security Presidential Directive (NSPD/HSPD), signed in January of 2009, reaffirmed America’s obligation to protect the Arctic domain, its environment, and those who work and live in it. Referring to the document, Commandant Allen said, “The new policy is recognition of changing conditions in the Arctic region and the implications for our Nation. This directive will guide our current operational activities in the region and guide the allocation of current and future resources to meet mission demands."
The U.S. Coast Guard has been joined in their efforts by a number of different flag states. The Arctic could soon see significantly more deep draft merchant traffic, as well as heightened interest in energy exploration in a region that has been, until now, largely off-limits because of weather and operational constraints. In advance of all of that, Canada’s Minister of Fisheries and Oceans announced this month that the five Arctic coastal states: Canada, Denmark, Norway, the Russian Federation and the United States, under the leadership of Canada, had established the Arctic Regional Hydrographic Commission.
Canada calls the joint effort “an important step in building synergy among the Arctic Ocean Coastal states and will help to improve safety of life at sea." said Minister Shea. "The establishment of this Commission will contribute to protecting the ecosystem and promote social and economic development in the North." The Commission, among other things, will promote technical cooperation and help to define the needs for new hydrographic products and services including surveys in an area that has seen a doubling of vessel traffic since 2005, due primarily to increases in ice-free waters over longer periods of time.
- Cold Feet: internal jitters at home
Local stakeholders in the United States, concerned about the pace of future Arctic development, also want more regional cooperation. A recent government report (GAO-10-870) to congressional requesters highlighted the fact that efforts to identify Arctic requirements are ongoing, but also called for more communication about Agency planning efforts. The GAO found that the Coast Guard coordinates with an array of stakeholders—foreign, federal, state, and local governments; Alaska Native interest groups; and private and nonprofit entities—on Arctic policy and operational issues, but some stakeholders want more information on the agency’s Arctic planning efforts. Nevertheless 9 of the 15 state and local officials GAO met with wanted more information on the status and results of the Coast Guard’s efforts to develop its future Arctic requirements.
The report also went on to describe challenges facing the Coast Guard as they attempt to corral this important and far reaching mission. GAO said, “Specifically, the Coast Guard does not currently have Arctic maritime domain awareness – a full understanding of variables that could affect the security, safety, economy, or environment in the Arctic – but is acquiring additional Arctic vessel tracking data, among other things, to address this issue. In addition, the Coast Guard’s Arctic assets and infrastructure are limited and not suitable for the harsh environment, but the agency is testing equipment and using alternative options to mitigate gaps.” GAO recommended that the Coast Guard communicate with key stakeholders on the process and progress of its Arctic planning efforts. DHS concurred with the recommendation.
- Industry Forges Ahead – and Lends a Hand
The private sector is not waiting for government to do all the heavy lifting. For example, the American Bureau of Shipping has already established an Arctic Technical Committee, intended to evaluate and review proposed changes to the ABS Rules and Guides that pertain to Arctic and cold weather operations. This follows another (2008) cooperative effort between ABS, ConocoPhillips, Sovcomflot, and Samsung Heavy Industries (SHI), who jointly participated in a study measuring the effect of ice loads on Arctic class shuttle tanker performance. Lloyds Register has also been active in the areas of ice class vessels and cold weather operations.
The efforts to define policy up north can’t come soon enough. That’s because commerce and trade in the Arctic is already here. Cargo ships are already successfully navigating across Russia's Arctic water, from South Korea to Siberia without the assistance of icebreakers. The cost-saving voyage pares about 4,000 nautical miles off traditional routes. Widely viewed as an anomaly at first, this sort of voyage could become routine in a very short period of time. A similar passage from Asia to Europe would save almost 6,000 miles, compared with Panama Canal routing. In a business obsessed with saving money to begin with, the lure of an ice-free Arctic may eventually be too much to ignore.
The suggestion – made at last year’s U.N. climate conference – that the Arctic Ocean might be nearly ice-free in the summertime as early as 2014 seems a bit optimistic. Most scientists, including the U.S. government, project a vanishing ice cap by the year 2030. Meanwhile, the completion of the well-publicized expansion of the Panama Canal to handle bigger, deeper draft and wider ship traffic could also happen as early as 2014. As the route of choice for traffic coming from Asia to the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts, the maximum size of ship that can safely transit the canal is about to get a lot larger.
The ambitious, $5.25 billion plan to widen the Panama Canal was billed as a way to help consumers by providing better economies of scale, reduced delays and increased capacity. The news was generally well received in the United States, where as much as 70% of canal traffic is ultimate destined. With Panama intending to underwrite at least part of the expansion by increasing tariffs, shippers are already looking for alternate routes. In their decision process, the Panamanians considered the Northwest Passage option, but this was not thought to be a viable solution. Increasingly, it is looking like they might have been wrong.
It is certainly possible that ten years from now, the climate trends that we see today will have been reversed. But, I doubt it. Moreover, and as Russia pushes the region as a viable shipping route, it is more likely that international shippers – some facing still greater financial pressures – will migrate to this nascent sea lane in greater numbers.
The readiness of any flag state to adequately respond to a disaster in the Arctic is questionable. Nowhere is that more evident than right here at home. The U.S. Coast Guard, for example, has just three icebreakers. Only one is currently operational and the other two are tied up in Washington state, in various states of disrepair. Congress and the Obama Administration are looking at upgrading the current fleet and perhaps building new icebreakers, but help is anything but guaranteed. Just look at what happened to Senate bill 2849, introduced by Alaska Senator Murkowski.
Proposed in December 2009, and referred to the Senate Armed Services Committee, the bill would have required a study and report on the feasibility and potential of establishing a deep water sea port in the Arctic to protect and advance strategic United States interests within the evolving and ever more important region. That sounds like a good idea to me. Unfortunately, there have been no hearings, no mark-up and the bill will likely die when the Congress closes at the end of December.
For the United States and Alaska, Russian shipping through the Arctic raises concern over environmental, military, safety and a raft of other similar issues. The U.S. Coast Guard, as early as 2007, helped bring light to the emerging situation. Now, it is up to Congress and the current administration to ensure that we are ready for what is to come. The esoteric new policies and GAO reports are simply not enough.
As a writer, I have waited a long time for the perfect opportunity to use the words “hot” and “Arctic” in the same sentence. With that magic moment now upon us, I sadly find that the most appropriate adjective to describe our regulatory response to the challenge at hand to be – in a word – tepid. – MR.
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Joseph Keefe is the lead commentator of MaritimeProfessional.com. You can also read his work in MarineNews and The Maritime Reporter magazines. He can be reached at jkeefe@maritimeprofessional.com or at Keefe@marinelink.com. MaritimeProfessional.com is the largest business networking site devoted to the marine industry. Each day thousands of industry professionals around the world log on to network, connect, and communicate.