Despite the Stabilization Agreement's desire for secrecy, hidden information can be deduced from the new container rate index
Like a tightly closed faucet being forced open by a wrench, the trans-Pacific carriers are grudgingly releasing more snippets of economic information. The monthly index of average revenue per 40 foot container on the eastbound leg, made public for the first time this month, uses June 2008 as a base.
Many analysts have been hoping for more detail --- although they privately realized that dollar figures were going to stay secret. "Because the index covers such a wide scope (all of Asia, all cargo, contract and spot rates, etc.), and because the various lines have very different mixes of cargo and trade scope, any specific dollar number would be less meaningful," is the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement's explanation.
On the plus side, the TSA is being praised for at least including spot rates. Yet, this has been made somewhat meaningless as no indication is given of the volume of the spot market compared with contract traffic.
Market wisdom puts it at between 8 percent and 17 percent of the total. Statistics enthusiasts can have a great time drawing up Excel spreadsheets that split out contract and spot rates, using the information that the index represents 85 percent of the trade on the eastbound lane, about 3.5 million FEU a year.
Adding to this, the TSA has very helpfully given exact details of how the weighting system works. So, starting with Maersk and moving on down, a market forecaster can make some pretty shrewd guesses as to rate patterns by individual carriers.
Some head scratching, not to say mirth, has broken out at the association's Orwellian decision to wipe out 2009 from the table, "because both the depressed revenue levels, and the subsequent relative increases in 2010 back to 2008 levels, are not representative of normal market trends and will in any case have diminishing impact going forward." Aside from the fact that they could hardly have an impact going back in time, 2009 rates are seen as very much part of market trends. In fact, most interest centers on just what did happen in 2008.
Of the figures that are published, January 2011 was markedly higher than the year before, but this was followed by a significant decline to where June was almost the same.
It will be intriguing to see if August 2011 matches the peak of the year before.