Hard to plan when the future is so uncertain

No one even knows how many ships will be built in the next two decades. Projections made a couple of years ago on the number of vessel deliveries are no longer valid, so anything based on past studies is automatically out of date.

The industry is a mess of confusion at the moment with ships being scrapped early, orders cancelled or delayed, ships laid up. How anyone can keep track of industry-wide operational fleet numbers next week, let alone in 20 years, is a mystery.

Which is a problem. Without crew, ships can’t sail and it takes a good 10 years from cadet to master or chief. Shipping lines have long neglected training and have been paying the price in the past few years, forking out large salaries to keep staff. Poaching is rife between lines with some carriers using it as a way to avoid the costs and commitment that come with training your own seafarers.

Of course, as with the aviation, China is where the main demand for officers is expected to be. But a ship manager here in Asia told us that China is seen as a wild card and will build up its state-owned fleet rapidly, simply fast tracking officers until the top positions are filled.

That’s a scary thought.

Several ship management companies have established maritime academies in Asia, generally in India, and are turning out well-qualified seafarers. But the  problem is that the picture of a life at sea is not as attractive as it once was.

Long periods away from home, poor on-board living conditions, overwork –  going to sea has just become unpleasant.

Finding people qualified enough to get the world’s fleet of ships safely around the world is not going to be easy, especially when the industry has no real idea how many people it needs.

Shipping has become a business where long-term strategic planning means looking ahead three years. That may be useful when planning a newbuilding programme or deciding on lay-ups, but it is not much use when it comes to developing a sustainable training strategy.