The latest inane utterance by South Korea’s president adds to our suspicions that the sinking of its warship a couple of months ago had nothing to do with North Korea.
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak told party officials this week that when the investigation into the sinking of the warship, Cheonan, is complete, its findings “will be accepted by China”.
This, apparently, was big news. Lee said China would be notified when the results were in and, "If we do so, the Chinese government will be convinced as well and play a role”.
Apart from the baffling lost-in-translation issues contained in the statement, what role would China be expected to play exactly?
If the investigation finds evidence that North Korea did in fact torpedo the 1,200-tonne patrol ship on March 26, the only role Lee would presumably want China to play is to hold North Korea’s hands behind its back while he punches the country back into the stone age (that won’t take much – it’s already halfway there).
Realistically, the UN Security Council would be dragged in but even though the shadow of the bomb would loom large over Seoul, the South Korean public is hardly shy and retiring, as anyone who has witnessed a street protest will attest.
The demands for revenge would be impossible to ignore. How does a country diplomatically resolve the torpedoing of one of its warships by a rogue neighbour that kills 46 of its seamen? As far as acts of war go, that pretty much fits all the criteria.
But if the evidence shows no North Korean involvement in the sinking of the Cheonan, as we suspect it will, China will not have any role to play, apart from trying to stifle fits of giggles.
Because as we wrote here a couple of weeks ago, clearing North Korea would open up a huge can of embarrassment for the South Korean president.
Preliminary evidence suggests that a torpedo was responsible, so the Cheonan either blew itself up (it carries several torpedoes) or someone shot it. If that someone wasn’t North Korea, it could only be another warship or submarine. At the time of the sinking, the US and South Korea were apparently conducting war games in the area, although everyone is being very quiet about that, too.
With such a high embarrassment factor, there is no easy way out for Lee’s government. To find North Korea guilty will see massive public pressure for military action that would be disastrous for both countries, and the region.
But a not guilty verdict would raise serious questions of competence from a government that appears to be making it up as it goes along.
There is only one face-saving way out of this mess for the South Korean government. Forget about finding a smoking gun, what president Lee needs to find is a floating mine.