At least that’s according to an investment banker, so any resemblance between his prediction and reality may be purely coincidental.
Nevertheless, for a country that makes everything, it was hardly surprising to learn that China is now the world’s top exporter.
Even though the mainland’s exports fell by 16 percent in 2009, those of the former world number one, Germany, fell even further. The slowdown in Germanland enabled the mainland to nimbly hop into top spot.
That banker mentioned in the intro predicted that China’s exports would grow at an average of 12 percent a year for at least the next decade. As always, the vast bulk of the exports will continue to go by ocean to their destination markets, so this is great news for container lines that are desperate to fire up their idling vessels cluttering waterways in lay-ups around the world.
China’s exports certainly got off to a flying start this year. (Warning: The base in 2009 against which the exports are compared was incredibly low, so don’t gasp and spill your coffee when reading the percentages.)
In January, mainland exports grew by 21 percent and then last month soared to 45.7 percent, according to government figures (which is a warning all in itself). Chinese New Year is a significant contributor to the early export surge as companies try to get their orders in before the country shuts down for two weeks. This year the lunar new year fell in February, as opposed to January last year, hence the big fat percentage increase.
Having said that, even though the high growth percentages can be misleading, growth is still growth. The trade figures are a welcome indication that the recovery is well under way, but before getting all excited and spilling the coffee again it is unlikely the strong export levels recorded earlier this decade will be achieved any time soon. There is still plenty of uncertainty out there and consumers in the major US and EU markets remain focused on paring down debt rather than shopping.
But memories are short, so give it a couple of years and China should be back at pre-crisis export levels. At least that’s what the bankers are saying, so it's probably best if you don’t bank on it.