Ocean carriers could be feasting on air freight from this weekend when new rules are applied in the US.
It doesn’t take much for shippers to switch certain types of cargo from air to ocean. Soaring fuel prices and the resultant surcharges will do it. Or a shortage of space.
But the greatest disruption to air freight comes in the shape of delays. Unlike sea freight, there is not much of a cushion built into the supply chain of high value, time sensitive goods, so when cargo is held up, it doesn’t take long for the risk management plan to kick in.
From midnight on Saturday, the US Transportation Security Administration will require that all air freight carried in the bellies of passenger planes in, around and out of the US will have to have been screened.
Most of the world's air cargo is transported in the bellies of passenger planes, not freighters, so the predictable disruptions are expected – delays, congestion, frustration. Several airlines say they are ready for the new measures, but many forwarders and shippers are concerned.
Back in the day, air freight shippers could switch to shipping lines in a pinch, but with slow steaming ships now operating on all major trade lanes, that door is not exactly wide open.
So now might be the time for container shipping lines to push the full steam ahead lever on transpacific services calling at the big US gateway ports.
Supply chain managers, however, are seldom without a Plan B, and after years of dealing with crises like terror attacks, congestion at West Coast ports, hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis, overcapacity, space shortages, economic meltdowns, etc, etc, their risk management plans are thicker than the Yellow Pages and cover most plausible scenarios.
Of course, switching modes is no easy task. It will take a serious adjustment to sourcing and supply strategies because of the extra time in the pipeline, but you could argue that anything that doesn’t absolutely have to go by air should be on top of a ship, anyway. It’s cheaper and emits less of a carbon footprint.